Gemini Space Station vs Figure Technology: Which IPO to Buy?
RockFlow Shayne
September 4, 2025 · 7 min read
September 2025 is delivering two major blockchain IPOs that couldn't be more different. Gemini Space Station (GEMI) and Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR) both leverage blockchain technology, but their financial performance, business models, and growth prospects tell very different stories. Here's a comprehensive comparison to help investors decide which IPO deserves their attention.
Company Overview: Crypto Exchange vs AI Lending
Gemini Space Station (GEMI)
Founded by the Winklevoss twins Cameron and Tyler, Gemini operates as a cryptocurrency exchange and digital asset platform. Based in New York, the company provides trading, custody, and institutional services for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other digital assets.
Core Business: Cryptocurrency exchange, custody services, institutional trading solutions, and USD-backed stablecoin (GUSD)
Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR)
Figure Technology revolutionizes lending through its proprietary Provenance Blockchain and AI-powered underwriting. Founded by Mike Cagney (ex-SoFi CEO), the San Francisco-based company specializes in home equity loans and is expanding into new asset classes.
Core Business: Blockchain-based lending platform, AI underwriting technology, tokenized asset origination, and capital markets infrastructure
IPO Details Comparison
| Metric | Gemini (GEMI) | Figure Technology (FIGR) |
|---|---|---|
| Price Range | $17.00 - $19.00 | $18.00 - $20.00 |
| Shares Offered | 16.67 million | 26.32 million |
| Total Raise | Up to $317 million | Up to $526.3 million |
| Valuation | Up to $2.22 billion | Up to $4.6 billion |
| Exchange | Nasdaq (GEMI) | Nasdaq (FIGR) |
| Lead Underwriters | Goldman Sachs, Citi, Morgan Stanley, Cantor | Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, BofA Securities |
Financial Performance: A Tale of Two Companies
Revenue and Profitability Comparison
| Financial Metric (H1 2025) | Gemini | Figure Technology |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $67.9 million | $191 million |
| Net Income/Loss | -$282.5 million loss | $29 million profit |
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | -8.6% decline | +22% growth |
| Previous Year H1 Revenue | $74.3 million | ~$157 million |
| Previous Year H1 Net Loss | -$41.4 million | -$13 million |
Key Takeaways:
- Figure shows strong profitability: Swung to $29M profit from last year's $13M loss
- Gemini faces significant losses: $282.5 million net loss on $67.9 million revenue
- Revenue trends diverge: Figure growing 22% while Gemini declined from $74.3M to $68.6M total revenue
Business Model Deep Dive
Gemini's Revenue Streams
| Revenue Source | Description | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| Trading Fees | Commission on crypto trades | High - Volatile with market |
| Custody Services | Institutional asset storage | Medium - Growing demand |
| Stablecoin (GUSD) | USD-backed digital dollar | Medium - Regulatory dependent |
| Institutional Services | Prime brokerage, lending | Medium - Competitive market |
Challenges: Revenue declined in challenging crypto market conditions, heavy losses indicate operational efficiency issues.
Figure Technology's Revenue Model
| Revenue Source | Description | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| Loan Origination | Fees from new loans | Low-Medium - Stable demand |
| Interest Income | Spread on lending | Low - Predictable cash flow |
| Blockchain Licensing | Technology licensing | Low - High margin recurring |
| Servicing Fees | Loan management | Low - Recurring income |
Advantages: $16B+ in home equity originated, diversified revenue streams, proven profitability path.
Technology & Innovation Comparison
Gemini's Technology Stack
- Core Platform: Traditional exchange architecture
- Innovation: GUSD stablecoin, institutional custody
- Competitive Moat: Regulatory compliance, brand trust
- Scalability: Limited by crypto market size
Figure's Technological Edge
- Provenance Blockchain: Proprietary lending blockchain
- AI Underwriting: Reduces processing to 5 minutes
- Tokenization: Converts loans into tradeable assets
- Market Potential: Massive traditional lending market to disrupt
Valuation Analysis
Price-to-Revenue Multiples
| Company | H1 2025 Revenue | Annualized Revenue | Valuation | P/S Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini | $67.9M | ~$136M | $2.22B | 16.3x |
| Figure | $191M | ~$382M | $4.6B | 12.0x |
Key Insight: Despite higher absolute valuation, Figure trades at a lower revenue multiple, suggesting better relative value.
Risk Assessment Matrix
| Risk Factor | Gemini Impact | Figure Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Regulatory Changes | High - Crypto scrutiny | Medium - Lending regulations |
| Market Volatility | High - Revenue tied to crypto | Low - Real estate backed |
| Competition | High - Coinbase, Binance | Medium - Traditional lenders |
| Technology Risk | Medium - Exchange tech | Low - Proprietary blockchain |
| Profitability Path | High - Large losses | Low - Already profitable |
Growth Prospects & Market Opportunity
Gemini's Addressable Market
- Crypto Trading: $1.8 trillion daily volume globally
- Institutional Custody: Growing but competitive
- Challenges: Market maturation, regulation, competition
Figure's Market Opportunity
- US Mortgage Market: $12 trillion outstanding
- Home Equity Market: $11+ trillion in untapped equity
- Expansion Potential: Other asset classes, international markets
- Blockchain Lending: Early-stage massive opportunity
Analyst Sentiment & Institutional Interest
Wall Street Coverage Expectations
- Gemini: Mixed due to crypto volatility and losses
- Figure: Positive on profitability and growth trajectory
- Sector Rotation: Investors preferring profitable fintech over speculative crypto plays
Investment Recommendation: Data-Driven Decision
Choose Gemini If You Want:
- Direct crypto exposure with exchange premium
- Lower absolute investment ($2.2B valuation)
- Winklevoss brand and regulatory track record
- Contrarian play on crypto market recovery
Risk Profile: High risk, high reward crypto play
Choose Figure Technology If You Want:
- Proven profitability and revenue growth
- Massive market opportunity in lending disruption
- AI and blockchain innovation exposure
- More stable business model with real-world utility
Risk Profile: Medium risk, high growth potential
Final Verdict: Figure Technology Wins on Fundamentals
Based on comprehensive analysis, Figure Technology presents the superior investment opportunity:
Quantitative Advantages:
- ✅ Profitable with $29M net income vs Gemini's $282M loss
- ✅ 22% revenue growth vs Gemini's 8.6% decline
- ✅ Lower P/S multiple (12.0x vs 16.3x)
- ✅ Larger addressable market ($12T+ lending vs crypto exchange)
Qualitative Strengths:
- ✅ Proprietary technology moat with Provenance Blockchain
- ✅ Diversified revenue streams reduce volatility
- ✅ Regulatory tailwinds in blockchain adoption
- ✅ Experienced leadership team with proven track record
Bottom Line: While Gemini offers pure crypto exposure, Figure Technology delivers a more compelling combination of growth, profitability, and innovation at a reasonable valuation.
Investment Allocation Suggestion:
- Aggressive Growth Investors: 80% Figure, 20% Gemini
- Conservative Investors: 100% Figure (skip Gemini's volatility)
- Crypto Enthusiasts: 60% Figure, 40% Gemini
Disclaimer: IPO investments carry substantial risks. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always consult with a financial advisor and conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.
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